What this chart is
Each line is a BTC halving cycle normalized from its own halving date.
Cycles share the same progress scale for direct comparison.
BTC Cycle Overlay
BETACompare historical BTC halving cycles normalized from each halving date.
Overlay recap
Current cycle progress
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Closest historical match
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Current cycle status
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Waiting for cycle data
Cycle Overlay
Normalized performance by cycle progress.
No observations for the selected range.
Cycle milestones
Cycle recap and projection
Confirmed cycle data and conservative estimates.
â ConfirmedðŪ Conservative estimate1 cycles
| Cycle | Top price | Top date | Bottom price | Bottom date | % from previous top | % from previous bottom | Drawdown Top â Bottom | Days to top | Days top â bottom | Start date | End date | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fifth halving cycle (2028)ðŪ Projection | $188,020 | 2029-10-05 | $63,927 | 2030-10-05 | +50.6% | +402.1% | -66.0% | 533 | 365 | 2028-04-20 | 2032-04-18 | 4y |
Estimates use diminishing drawdown and diminishing return logic: current bottom from historical drawdowns 2015 -84.3%, 2018 -83.5%, 2022 -75.6%; 2028 top from all confirmed tops 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025; 2028 bottom from historical bottoms 2015, 2018, 2022 plus the estimated 2024-cycle bottom.
How to read this chart
How to read it
- X axis = progress through the halving cycle
- Y axis = performance from halving price
- Dashed line = historical average, when enabled
Probability windows
Green windows mark historical top clusters.
Red windows mark historical bottom clusters.
Darker zones mean stronger historical clustering.
Historical zones are descriptive, not predictive.
Display / legend
Green dots mark confirmed cycle tops.
Red dots mark confirmed cycle bottoms.
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